There is nothing worse than someone in denial – like those who dismissed the potential consequences of COVID-19 when it was coming. Those same deniers, ironically, have become the most negative and apocalyptic.
Let´s get one thing clear, no one knows how this will end, and no one knows when, but there is something we all know, there is always light at the end of the tunnel.
We have been analyzing data for the last few weeks, analyzing different scenarios, as well a listening to experts and professionals who are working very hard to put options on the table on how to survive this situation.
Things initially were very serious, but the situation has escalated more than expected, mainlybecause COVD-19 does not just affect our health, but also our lives, as well as our economy. We are facing 3 crises at the same time.
Optimistic predictions, depending on if you are in Europe or the US, say that by summer this will be over. Some optimistic professionals bet on 40% to 50% of the bookings increasing, while pessimists say there may be a 0% to 10% increase.
We need to be realistic. A 40% increase in bookings, if the health crisis is over by June or July, seems possible in Europe, and perhaps even in the US if people take a late holiday in August or September.
In order to have a realistic approach, you need to analyze data and use statistics to make a short, medium, and long term plan. If you don’t work all 3 scenarios, you are lost and you may find yourself depending only on luck.
Let´s be realistic…
Data: A majority of Countries are saying the lockdown will be lifted by the end of May in Europe still far but it is on the horizon. For the US, President Trump has said that we can expect things to normalize near the end of June or the beginning of July.
Pessimists are now saying “When this Health crisis ends, nothing will be as before.” Perhaps, but things will not be 100% the opposite of what we had, right? Things will change and people will gradually resume their normal lives, so we will not go from lockdown to everyone getting in a plane and “let’s do miles again.”
Will travelers still travel? Yes, people will still need holidays, especially after the lockdown period. There will be customers looking for holiday homes, and as they will have a lot of options, they will look for good quality properties at reasonable prices. Also keep in mind that they will look LOCAL and very few people will travel internationally, at least in the short-term.
The travel industry will need to recover, and this will not be one day to the next, but it will not be the end of the world. Please keep in mind that the travel industry is needed now more than ever.
Let’s be realistic again. Prepare your plan for the next season, and also prepare what you are willing to do with your business. Would you transform it or let it down? Would you flow with the market or stay attached to the past?
Being too optimistic may lead you to make mistakes, like ignoring the reality. Don’t be extremely optimistic with high expectations and emotions, that may bring you to a terrible depression.
A crisis is, in fact, a real change where you may have no other option than to adapt. The real opportunity is that you can control this change from a proactive perspective, or you can assume this change from a passive perspective and let go.
There is plenty of data indicating that the market and customers are now demanding long term vacation rentals like it used to be 14 years ago. Vacation Rentals were very seasonal and were based on long term rentals between 15 to 30 days. Don´t you think the travel industry may go back in time? Think about this option too, at least during the period of recovery.
In a long term strategy, if you want to make plans, think about where you want to go. This is a fantastic time to think and plan for the future of your business. Being realistic, you have never been in a better position to strategize.
Whatever you would like to do, one thing is for sure, there is CREDIT and you have possibilities to plan your business with a perspective. You don’t have to decide or execute the plan right now, today. You can wait to see what happens in September, or even 2021.
Try no to blow yourself up with the anxiety and the pessimism of those that are already following other industries or business bread crumbs. Don’t overreact, don’t panic, and don’t hurt others.
You can choose to see this crisis as an opportunity, or you can let it defeat you. It becomes a defeat when pessimists start spreading their negativity, and their irresponsible actions convert the sector into a swamp.
Be realistic, this has just started and you still have time to think and react. Don´t panic, our sector is full of intelligent and generous people who are providing options and alternatives every day. Just ask and get some help if you are lost.
To help you understanding what your future looks about for your business, you have to make your plans according with the SEGMET of the Vacation Rentals you are in.
So if you are Urban, there is a Change prognostic and long term recover, if you are Vacation or Beach, there will be up to 40% or 50% lose this season but it may recover if you are smart to offer good opportunities to customers. And if you are Mountain, country side or Ski, keep planning your next season taking into account the best experiences you can learn from Urban and Holiday Segments.
Please share this message among PM´s and the whole community.